Sunday, October 23, 2016

IBD poll has Trump leading by ~2 points.

Many people say Trump has already lost but a couple of recent polls.  They say that Trump not pledging to accept the initial election results without a review was the last nail in his political coffin.  Others, however are not throwing in the towel yet.  For example, the most recent IBD poll has Trump ahead by 1.8 percentage points.  Historically, the Vegas odds have been the most likely to be correct since they have real money at stake.  Oddschecker has Hillary the clear favorite.  However, Vegas got it wrong for the last congressional elections.  GOPs creamed the dems big time.  In charting, when I see a stock go up despite bad news or I see one go down even with good news it is always a sign of a major direction change.  Little could be worse than the cloud that the media has cast over Trump for his recording of coarse language and 14 year old adolescent bragging.  Forget about Hillary's inherent criminality over the course of decades, it's all about Trump shooting off his mouth.  Or so the media would have us believe...

I wonder if we will see a collapse in traditional wisdom again here.  It has been a long standing tenet of my model that late in the Ponzi and early in the collapse we will see a series of signs that we should not be ignoring.  One of them is that the old ways that seemed so fool proof for decades on end simply stop working, and nobody saw it coming.  The lions kill the herd, kill the herd, kill the herd everyone seems to accept it as normal that it is the herd's place to be killed and it is the lion's place to do so easily and without significant consequence.  It generally works like that and so, the conventional wisdom asserts, it will always work like that.  Until of course, the herd snaps at all the mistreatment and we have a battle at Kruger where the herd begins to act uncharacteristically intelligently and aggressively toward its oppressors.

No matter what happens and whoever wins we will see a time when Americans have never been so divided.  No matter what happens, half the population is going to be very angry about the outcome.

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