[VALE] udate

In the backlink my primary model was for VALE to begin heading up into a 3rd wave.  That model broke down and left us with a very a-b-c looking structure which, so far, has not been able to put in a lower low.  So at this point given that the move up from the early April low was 5 waves, I'm going to count this move as a deep vee 2nd.  In fact, I just picked up a wad of the common shares at $5.65 in the extended trade.

The beauty of this setup is that if I am wrong then I will stop out 1 penny below the April low for a tiny loss but if I am right then we should see a rapid move up from here as modeled below.  As with any EW model setup, knowing when your model is wrong is just as important and valuable as knowing when it is right.