[HUI] - time to keep a very close eye. Near term bottom will likely be in soon.

In the backlink I provided the model below.  It shows two things to be looking for.

1. First, some kind of support center channel.  This support might be the bottom (breaking back up through the H+S neckline is the confirmation that this was in fact the case) or it might just be a bounce point (shown by the red model).  Note that EW models can be drawn more than one way, just as herds in Africa have more than one trail to the watering hole, groundhogs have more than one exit to their underground homes, etc.   Without multiple possible paths it would just be too easy for the predators to win.  Still, "multiple likely possible" is not the same as "infinite likely possibilities" and that is all that someone without EW actually gets. 
2. The likely possibility of a lower low that collapses quickly to the lower rail.  While this would be the most satisfying outcome for me personally, it is far from a certainty.  Mid channel falling wedge reversals are very common.

 If you downloaded the original picture and then zoomed in manually you would see this which is of course a move down to about the 135 level which is where I expect fairly strong support to materialize as shown in red.


OK so that was the model.  Below is the current snapshot.  As you can see, we did make it down to $135.  The model suggests that a reversal of some degree is becoming very likely within a very short time, days not weeks.



Below is also a current snapshot but zoomed out to see the entire decline since 2011.   The big green numerals indicate a motive wave and are essentially the same for Avi and EWI.   Both believe that 5 down are about to end very very soon and a big reversal will ensue.  The only difference between Avi and EWI is degree.

Avi thinks it will be the start of a monster bull market in gold, perhaps one of the biggest in history.  A monster 3rd wave up.  Of course, will it be gold going up or global fake paper money just going down?  Gold can only be said to have "gone up" when priced in real commodities like ozt per bbl of crude, ozt per suit of clothing, ozt per trip to the grocery store, etc.  EWI thinks it will go up to the level of the prior 4th and then come crashing back down hard along with everything else as the fake money system of the world, all the global markets, real estate, you name it go down the pipes into one of the biggest crashes in the history of man.

Here is something that you might find interesting if you know anything about quantum physics.  The state of matter is probabilistic, not deterministic.  How do scientists think they know this?  MODELS!!!  Math!!!  They have observed, they have created models, they are constantly testing their models, etc. EW is no different.  It is models and math and fractals based (i.e. more math).  R.N. Elliott observed, made models, and many have been testing them for a long time.

Neither EWI nor Avi are idiots; quite the contrary.  Both of them know EW rules very, very well.  Both have times when they were too right for words and both have been wrong plenty (with Avi more likely to call bullshit on his model than EWI is IMO).

So here is the mind blowing part: I have looked at both of their models and either could actually happen.  In fact right here and right now today, both of them have very similar odds of occurring even though they are at complete odds with each other over the long run.  Now you know why I often say drive for show but putt for dough.  It's the short game that keeps you on the leader board folks.  Big long term predictions make great headlines and are awesome about bragging rights if they pan out.  I in fact have had a very good number of incredible calls on this blog.  But there is more than a little luck involved in doing this because the herd can make choices, at least with some degree of freedom based on probabilities, in real time.  It's like lightening in a bottle.  So while EW can produce incredible predictions, what it's really good at is telling you when the expected future is not going to play out.  IMO it is no coincidence that math is often used in this same way for physicists.  Everything is connected in ways we can't see but which exist nonetheless.

In any case, I look for a reversal in Metals and Miners (M+M) very soon now and it remains to be seen if it is a small rally (~20 HUI points for example) or if it breaks back out the neckline signaling something bigger has begun (either EWI's B wave or wave 1 of 3 up for Avi).