[S+P500] update

In the backlink I modeled a bounce from the wedge throw under and that is essentially what we got into the close, thus destroying UVXY from a 10+ pct gain to a 10 pct loss for anyone trying to short this market using UVXY and who doesn't model using EW.


My model says we are at a major decision point for the markets which could literally go either way.  If any kind of firecracker goes off right now, the herd is just going to say fuck it, break out into full stampede, tear down the fences and trample the cowboys on the way down south.  I expect a bounce as high as the top rail at least but more likely back to the level of the prior 4th.  If it does that with an a-b-c move, I'm back into UVXY.  But if we see a move higher than that in 5 waves then the odds shift toward Avi pretty rapidly.

It is also possible that tomorrow gaps down at the open but that would not be the highest odds herd movement scenario.  I'm playing it safe and hoping for the a-b-c into green 2 so I can buy back into UVXY.