Looking at [AMD] for a short term trade.

Everyone hates AMD right now.  It has sold off all of its valuable assets over the years and it simply has not been able to remain profitable despite branching off into gaming consoles where it does not have to compete with Intel.  Search the web for "AMD bankrupt" and you will find many articles like this one.  In truth, AMD is a good enough company with in fact pretty amazing technology and many, many good people.  I say this as someone who worked there for 14 years.  But the company has been run by arrogant fools on the engineering side and the entire marketing organization, i.e. the vision guys, is completely useless.  They are intentionally kept weak by the all powerful but painfully egotistical and arrogant engineering organization.  Somehow the board has allowed this to continue despite so many years of failure to compete well in the places that the engineering heads have driven the company.  To have assembled in one place a group with so much potential as AMD has while failing so abysmally in the market place is practically a sin.

In any case, I think there is more pain in AMD's future but nothing physical travels in a straight line, and certainly herds don't.  IMO the best modeling tool for trying to predict what comes next is Elliott waves and if my count (AKA wave model) is correct, AMD is now at D of 4 meaning a strong rally into E of 4 before the final collapse in wave 5 down which will in fact represent the complete unwind of dot bomb.  If this occurs it will represent a massive short term share price percentage gain of at least 50% for a short stroke E and perhaps up to nearly 100% at $4.

Any significant move downward from current levels suggests that the lower support rail is not forming as hoped by the model and thus confidence in the model should decrease accordingly.  But do note that blue 3 is not part of wave 4 and thus only a guideline where d of 4 will terminate.  So a little bit of leeway should be allowed, perhaps 5%.  One could also just treat it as a $2 non-expiring call on the shares and build a position over time.