A high odds setup on [UVXY]

I normally pay most attention to the near term turns of the chart, especially when playing these leveraged ETFs.  The reason for it is clear: when the swing is 20% in a day, you have to have a short term perspective or you could get crushed.  The real value of stepping back for me is to add confidence to my trades during the big turns.  EWI thinks a meltdown is unfolding and Avi's latest posts indicate he would not be surprised to see a size-able pullback on S+P back to 1800 right now.

I've been looking for UVXY to bottom for a very long time now and there is no doubt that I was early in my views that a massive melt down is unavoidable at some point.  I have always said that the real fundamental here is that a population bubble known as boomers have been working, earning, saving and being herded like sheep into the financial markets like a bunch of Marks and Patsies.  When they retire in droves they will not only stop working and stop contributing to the stock market Ponzi at the highest rates of their careers (due to being at highest pay level and due to being told to make "catch up" contributions leading up to retirement), they will in fact begin to withdraw from it.  That swing from extraordinary deposits into the market to extraordinary withdrawals is not going to go unnoticed by the markets!  The kids today don't have the jobs or the money to replace the contributions of 67 year old people who are entering retirement.

I placed 2017 as the year that all of it becomes Geece-like inescapable for the US.  That's when the number of retirees should be expanding rapidly, thus arming the time bomb that is already in place.

While the jury is still out on that time frame call, I'm still counting the waves to see where the bottom might be and tonight I want to mention something I know I have written here before which is that the prior rally looked a lot like a 4th wave to me.  Below is the several year picture of UVXY.  In all that time there is only one formation that counts as a horizontal triangle (HT) and that is circled in red below.  HTs are always penultimate which means when it is done we should have seen 5 waves down into the bottom.

If this model is correct, and I'm calling it my primary model at this point, the markets are about to pick up speed to the down side as UVXY catches a major fear bid.  Of course, and as always, time will tell, nobody knows the future, EW is about odds and not certainties, don't bet more than you can afford to lose and use stops at appropriate EW locations.