Tuesday, July 21, 2015

[ABX] update

The backlink was unambiguously entitled "[ABX] update - expecting a significant to serious bottom in metals and miners next week."

Well, I would say what happened so far this week in metals an miners could easily be counted as "significant to serious".  I gave the model on the left with the oblong indicating a range and time for bottoming.  The Monday collapse and Tues minor rebound are added to the right. 






























Folks, tell your moms and pops to buy a 50% position in metals and miners right now.  Tell them to keep some powder dry in case we get more selling into the end of the week.  But tell them not to be too shy because you don't get this kind of opportunity very often.  As in perhaps once in a lifetime.  Maybe.  Even if EWI turns out to be correct from here, the minimum bounce I expect on ABX is back up to green 4 in the $13.50-$14 range.  That's pushing a double there and it should happen before the end of the year.

Of course, GDXJ will do even better on a percentage basis and it doesn't have single company risk.  I know the charts of M+M have been scary looking.  I know that people think that the government manipulates metals for their own benefit in any way that they like.  I'm telling you: ignore all this bullshit as it is meaningless emotional drivel.  You want to buy low, sell high, right?   Well gold and silver are LOW.  Miners are in a great depression and that is no exaggeration.  The DJIA went down 89% during the great depression.  Did that mean it lost all value to the herd?  Of course not.  GDXJ (Jr miners) bottomed yesterday at $18.40 which, compared to its 2011 high of 179.50, was a collapse of 89.75%.  They are selling for 10 fucking cents on the dollar!!  What more do you want?  Free??  Sure they can spike down momentarily but that is only for traders like me to take advantage of.  Most people should be cost averaging into something golden and if they have been so lucky to hold out until now then they should do a one time purchase to acquire a 50% position at these price levels and then cost average from there.  Or, for people who aren't easily spooked, just go all in at this price level of $7.50 on ABX (or other major mining names, preferably not all eggs in one casket [sic]).  Another option is GDX, the senior miner ETF, now on sale for $14.22 vs 2011 high of $67.

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