Friday, July 24, 2015

[HUI] update

In the backlink HUI had just barely thrown under the falling wedge lower rail.  Here is that model.



Today we had a bit of follow through but then a double bottom and a strong reversal.  This actually formed a tiny falling wedge.  Wedges are 3rds or Cs according to CWT and I modeled it as a 3rd above.  Also per above, at the end of a very long trend you often get a failed 5th so if we see an inclining double bottom as shown above I will count it as 4 and then 5.  The death spiral for miners could well be over today.  I admit that neither EWI nor Avi see it this wave but I have been right when both have been wrong before so I'm betting on me this time.



Zooming way in  I like the solid double bottom we got after 5 waves down following a clear 4th wave HT.  I also like the fact that it was an intraday reversal.  These are pretty unusual. If this pulls back on Monday it could do a deep vee for a double bottom on a larger scale.  Be looking for that , buy the dip and then set stops as a lower low than 108.  Of course is pullback to 113 and then reversal higher is simply bullish, period.



I'm going to reiterate that normal people should be buying this level on the HUI for the long term, cost averaging in as they go.  Traders should be working it aggressively here, looking for a bottom that finally holds and then slowing down the manic trading as the headwind shifts around and becomes a tail wind.

What would be interesting here would be if miners and gold moved up and then gold moved to a lower low in August per Avi's count while miners do not hit a lower low.  That would be bullish divergence IMO and I think there is a very good chance that it will happen.

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