Avi discounts the effect of exogenous factors on the movement of [GLD]

Since Avi and Prechter/EWI are all Ellioticians, they all believe (as do I) that the true fundamentals of asset price movements are unknown and unknowable because they are based on complex interactions of hundreds of other factors. 

Imagine that you have an economy represented by a swimming pool.  On one side you have a signal sinusoidal signal source - a wave generator.  With such a simple model is is easy to predict when the economic peaks and valleys will occur.  Now let's change that signal source into a child playing.  Is it really that easy to see any patterns now?  And what about when 7 billion children are playing.  The interactions are beyond the capability of man to map and thus predict. 

So if you filter out all of the other signals and just look at the signal coming from a single source, GLD for example, it appears chaotic.  In reality it is not chaotic at all, it's just so complex that only God can understand it.  The energy transmitted by each wave is not affected by the other waves in the pool!  They pass through each other just like waves of ocean water or light.  But the waves do add and subtract from each other forming peaks and troughs, again like water or light.  This is what we are looking at with Elliott waves.  What EW says is that when all these waves interact, they do leave behind a telltale signature consisting of motive and corrective waves.  A proper interpretation of these waves is challenging and without absolute certainty to be sure but a darned sight better than just wildly guessing which is what most people do when they "invest" (oh just call it what it is: GAMBLING).

In any case, Avi explains here that sometimes gold goes up in inflation, sometimes down.  Sometimes up in turmoil, sometimes down.  So gold isn't really, at the end of the day, a PREDICTABLE hedge against anything.  Not really.  The only real indicator of next direction is the wave count.  Nobody has been more accurate over the years at calling the turns on metals than Ellioticians.  NOBODY.

Now, there is one fundamental that is actually a fundamental and that is that fake, unbacked money has no real value and that means its value is all faith based.  So over the course of many years it will, like an option, lose value over time.  All fiat currency is the same, the only difference is in degree.  When the Zimbabwe dollar was in its prime it traded at 7:1 to the USD.  When they officially cancelled it the exchange rate reflected the true value of fake money: 35 quadrillion zim dollars to 1 USD.  Of course, just the paper and ink are worth more than that for recycle value.  You can sell them for novelty toilet paper and get a much better price.

It's because of this that I keep telling people, especially younger people, to completely avoid the 401k system.  Just save your retirement wealth in gold and silver bullion (not numismatic) coin and forget the short term gyrations.  Your wealth, your buying power WILL be there for you when you need it (or the world will have blown itself up and you won't care).  You cannot say the same about 401k programs, pension programs, insurance annuities, etc.  They are all just Wimpy promises which will gladly pay you Tuesday if you give them a hamburger today.  Of course, just like in the cartoon, Tuesday never comes.  All that ever comes are Greek-like requests for more assistance and fake unrealistic promises that if you do pay up that they will behave more conservatively and honestly going forward.  At the end of the day they have to go bankrupt and then they will just become austere without all the public promises/lies.