Friday, July 17, 2015

Likely very near an important [UVXY] turn

Folks, the bull market in confidence and trust cannot last forever.  I think we all know that.  The question is when will the herd suddenly decide to become fearful and, importantly to the financial future of UVXY holders, how quickly will it happen.  My EW below suggests that we are going to see at least some near term fear which could peter out after a 20% gain per the red model or after a 50% gain per the blue or it could turn into something much bigger per the green.

I always suggest to buy the dip once we count 5 waves down.  But here we potentially have 5 of 5 of a motive wave which itself is a 5th (we know this because of the big HT.  So a bounce to the prior 4th of it would be $140 to $180.  When the fear comes I think it will come quickly because the markets have not only been not fearful, they have arrogantly been shorting fear.  When they run to cover this trade it should be a fine sight to behold.  Strap in boys and girls but be sure to use stops at the indicated EW points.


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