[DRYS] update

Commodities and anything to do with them has gotten the stuffing beaten out of it over the past few years.  Dry bulk shipping has been no different.  In the backlink to DRYS I modeled a potential move down to the 50 cent range.




The current snapshot shows that we got just that followed by a sharp rally and now are testing to see if this will double bottom here.  It is a worthwhile play to buy this at 50 cents and then set stops at 48 cents.  To me this is like a non-expiring call option on dry bulk shipping.  So far they have been paying their debts and IMO they would have likely defaulted already if that was in fact what they had in mind.



For those who like to keep up with the fairy tale valuations metrics, these may be the lowest I have ever seen.  Price to book of .13 means that the market cap is only 13% of the book value of all their assets.













Remember, these guys own a lot of shares of ocean rig (ORIG)\ and ORIG is looking very 5th of 5 these days folks.  If ORIG goes up a little, DRYS goes up a lot.  So DRYS common shares are also effectively non-expiring calls for ocean rig.





Or hey, maybe oil will just go worthless, that black sticky goo!  Who wants it anyhow?  Soon we will all be electric cars from solar, right?  Yeah, no.  This swoon has nothing to do with the value of oil!  It has to do with how fake leveraged money was used to buy these shares and now, despite what the DJIA and 'DAQ do, that money is coming out of these leveraged bets.  The DJIA and 'DAQ will break down soon enough and follow suit IMO.