Sunday, July 12, 2015

[NKE] update

While I provided negative sentiment and a chart snapshot in the backlink I did not provide any model.  So below is my first and current model for NKE.  Yeah, yeah, I know, this is impossible, Yes I know Nike is the mythological goddess of victory, blah blah blah.  And yes Nike shareholders are rolling in the clover right now.  But the wave count strongly suggests that the good times are about to reverse in a big way and that people are going to find out the hard way (by people I mainly mean pension funds, insurance annuities, private 401ks, etc.) that NKE trailing PE of 30, laughable price to book of 7.39 and other bubble metrics along with jokish 1% divvy yield are all going to collapse into their own footprint at the speed of gravity. 

The target level for this pullback is $20 which is the level of the prior 4th.  I can't say whether the blue path or red path will be taken but the pullback target remains the same under EW guidelines no matter what happens to peak this stock out.  The first real sign of panic will be when the top rail is broken down.  I would actually like to see a strong test of that top rail per the red path and then a very rapid, panic buying wave up into red 5 and folks if we see that I will be loading up on the 2017 $30 puts.

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