Monday, July 6, 2015

Where's the panic? [S+P500]

In the backlink I modeled wave 4 (possibly 4 of C if Avi's model is in play) to have completed and so I held UVXY over the weekend.  Today's S+P dip at the open pushed UVXY up 10% but when the bounce became higher than the 38.2 fib on the S+P, I bailed on UVXY for only a 5% gain.  The S+P then tried to push up again but again ran out of steam at the down slope @ 2078.  Unfortunately work prevented me from playing it.  So I stayed on the sidelines for the rest of the day and will stay on the sidelines over night. 

As you can see from the updated S+P 500 15 minute model below, I think wave 4 has morphed into a HT: 


 Under this model scenario I expect a little AM spike on the S+P before falling hard down to the 2044/2045 level which is where wave blue 5 would be equal to blue 1 in size.  It also happens to be just about where Avi's model expects C of 4 to terminate.  So be careful shorts. 

Let's say the above happens.  It does not ensure Avi is correct but it would lend significantly more credence to his model.  If you see this, bail out of UVXY (likely at around $55) and then watch to see if the retracement goes a-b-c back to ~2070 OR if 5 waves power up past blue 4.  If we just get the a-b-c then mos def be back in because it suggests that 2040 is not C but rather 1 of 3 of 3.  In this case, which is the EWI proposition, the a-b-c retracement to 2075 would be 2 of 3 of 3.  If the herd chooses this path, the next move is 3 of 3 of 3 and you will want to be in UVXY for that wave down.

Multiple factors are now stacking up saying that Avi's model is becoming the more likely, a view that I will change if we can see that 500 point down day in the DJIA materialize.  One big factor is where is the fear?  Greece voted for no more austerity (AKA no longer want to put in the effort needed to pay off debilitating generational debt).  This should have produced a panic response if anything was going to do so.  But I don't see any panic.  I see sectors selling off but no general market malaise.  We are going to get a lot more insight on this matter over the next several trading days and of course right when it is getting interesting I will be traveling to China where not only will I be too busy to do much with the markets but also connectivity is spotty even if I did have time.  Isn't that the way it always goes? 

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