[S+P500] update

In the backlink I linked Avi's model that says the current S+P 500 pullback is not the start of the big crash but rather the 4th wave pullback pause that refreshes.  Here is a portion of the chart offered in that article by Avi:




As you can see from the current snapshot below, Avi has not been far wrong so far at a time when, if we are honest about it, EWI hasn't gotten much right in quite some time.

Avi expected 4 of C  of 4 to peak at about 2080.  As you can see, it spiked to 2085 before reversing downward.  That's quite an acceptable margin of error for a winning model.  Next week, both Avi and EWI predict downward motion.  The only difference is that Avi's model predicts it will bottom around 2044 and then move back up to a new high whereas EWI is likely to begin getting very excited about a major crash in progress if a lower low is put in than 2055.





All this time I have been siding with EWI but I'm close to flipping over into Avi land for several reasons:

• Several EWI counts have been off for some time now including metals.  Their long term count for gold and silver would completely destroy the mining industry and I just don't see that happening right now.
• EWI thinks a rising wedge is an ending diagonal whereas my charting is largely dominated by my own WX centric counts.  If the last peak was a rising wedge then W3 is exactly how my proprietary theory would label it.
• Unless this moves down significantly below 2040, any bounce will result in WC4.  Again, WX moves are corrective, not motive.
• Such a move will enable a big rally, probably into late Q3 to a higher high.  At that point Avi's S+P target would be 2300 ish and then we could have quite a big pullback all the way back down here to 2050 on the S+P (level of the prior 4th).  In other words, we could relieve a lot of pressure with a Q3 quick pullback that gets everyone all excited.

A lot will depend on what happens next week.  It's great to have long term views and market direction opinions but don't fall in love with a long term theme and don't fight the ticker.  Drive for show and putt for dough.  I'm repeating this as much for my own sake as for yours!

Having said that, I think we could get a very rapid move up on UVXY into that last little washout bottom (assuming that's what it turns out to be).  It could go to 55 or higher in short order even if Avi will turn out to be right.  If EWI is right and the markets really do begin to panic for real (remember:500 point down day on the DJIA is needed before I consider anything to be "real" panic) then UVXY is going into the stratosphere.