[TOL] update

Gawd.  When EW works, it friggin works.  Check out the backlink on home builder TOL.  I wrote it on Wed August 19th.  The chart below is from that post.  In it I wrote, "I'm counting this as a rising wedge in e wave throw over which is corrective and which will reverse downward with gusto within 2 weeks.  That will create a massive declining double top... Nobody would believe this by listening to Jim Cramer.  He's up on the home builders man.  He wants you to "move" into them now.  I'm going to have to call Cramer out again.  Even if this peak turns out to be W3 instead of WC, the shares are still likely to head down to first support at $30 here.  Either way, his advice will IMO turn out to be either very bad or simply as mal-timed as humanly possible."





Note the day where this peaked.  Yes, Wed August 19th.  Additionally, I continued mocking Cramer the next day with this post before it was even clear that he was going to have egg on his face.

Indeed, Cramer's loud talk and good sounding "reasoning" just got obliterated by the only TA on the planet that I have ever seen with the ability to call turns to the day like this.

Again, for newcomers, don't expect this can happen every time.  This is about odds and not about certainties.  But when you put EW on your team you add a home run hitter with a high batting average to boot.  Your odds just have to go up when you do that.

Stay away from Mammon Money religion evangelicals like Cramer.  They simply have no clue about stocks.  They sell themselves to the herd, that's it.  Cramer's track record can be beaten by throwing darts.






The next likely support level for this is around $18 in 3 waves but if it drops below the lower green rail then Prechter's views which is stated in his 2002 book "Conquer the crash" (a must read IMO) will get the nod as being the high odds play.