Wednesday, August 19, 2015

[PBR] update - within spitting distance of the bottom of wave 2 or B

In the backlink I was modeling an imminent bottom but without zooming into really catch all of the detail.  I mean, how many people do you know who can call a top or a bottom to within a few cents?  It's not easy and there is a significant element of chance involved.  But as the data plays out, the odds become higher and higher that we are just about ready to turn the corner - perhaps in just 1-2 days (if not already on the next wave up).  People who haven't put my kind of effort into charting always think it's impossible to see the patterns simply because we all live inside our own heads.  Our experience forms our world view. 

In any case, we'll see how good my world view is on this very shortly.  I'm looking for a small inclining double bottom here as shown in red and then some "news" to occur which is used as justification for the next big run up.  This has "double by end of September" written all over it according to my current model.  Of course I could be wrong because all of this is about odds and not certainties but that statement is true with any investment (cough cough gambling bet).  The difference is that I know that if this goes down to anything less than 5.60 that the odds move up quickly that something unexpected is taking place.  I expect a pullback wave that forms an inclining double bottom here.  So if you want to have fun with this, wait for it to fall to the low 5.60s and then set stops at 5.59 and challenge the market maker to take you out.  I don't think they will do it.

Yes I know this is splitting hairs very finely but that is part of the fun for me.  Yes I also know that 5.60 could have been just 3 of red 5.  But I'm modeling tiny inverted owl on this one.  Time will tell.






2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Captain,

Any updates on former recommendation CJES? It has gotten destroyed over the last 2-3 months.

Thanks,
~J.T. Marlin

The Captain said...

JT, CJES was never a "recommendation". That word is for long term "investors". Conversely, I advocate trading the waves.

Check out this post where that rising wedge had to either out itself as a W3 OR as WC. It turned out to be WC, probably WC4.
http://economati.blogspot.com/2015/05/cjes-getting-interesting.html

I think we are very near a major bottom there. Will do a quick post on it.

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