[DRD] update

Even though I have been calling the turns on these shares with excellent accuracy, I still maintain that no I am not from the future. 

All joking aside, in that backlink I provided the model below.



Today's snapshot and model is below and it looks suspiciously like the upper red "failed 5th" model.  The usual requirements for a 5th are that it

1. be 5 waves down
2. wave 5 hits a lower low than wave 3 down
3. if wave 3 was extended then 5 will generally equal the length of 1

However, in some cases like the one below., the 4th wave pushed up a bit harder than expected thus making it impossible to satisfy both guidelines 2 and 3.  In cases like this we can end up with a so called failed 5th (rule 2 is not met).




However, there is one rule that cannot be changed and that is that motive waves are 5 down.  So is this afternoon slaughter 5 down?  Well, per the 2 minute DRD chart below, I can get a reasonable 5 count out of it.  Does this mean it is for sure correct?  Of course not.  Odds folks, that's the best we can do here is to improve our odds in competing with the rest of the herd that trades on nothing more than gut feel.  Did I have to be correct (to the tune of more than 20% on that trade) in my move to jump into JDST at the close on Friday as documented here?  Again, no, I got sklucky (new readers: some skill, some luck = skluck) again that it worked in my favor.  But neither was it random chance on my part.  I really, really try not to do random.  I try to have an EW argument for each purchase and each sale.  It's my only defense against the magick (sic) of wall st.

So this could be just 1 of 5.  If that's the case then it will only bounce to around $1.26 tomorrow before reversing down hard into 3 of 3.  So intraday I rely on stops to save me while I cannot be watching the ticker and then after trading is over or into the end of trading I will take a look to see if I can set myself up for the next day.  Stops on this should be set to $1.16.  I sure would like to see this crash down to $1 per my long standing model but as I like to say, drive for show and putt for dough.  The big picture is good so that you know what is possible and so that you don't get badly blindsided but it's the daily micro count that will either save your ass from a major shellacking or put money in your pocket on a consistent basis.