[S+P500] update [UVXY]

At the backlink I provided the chart below.  It essentially said that wave 2 (of some degree) was done or nearly so.




It seems that blue 2 was the correct designation above for the peak of that 2nd wave because immediately afterward we got a significant collapse to a lower low as seen in the current snapshot below.  Sorry, I changed the color of the labels on you but blue 1 and blue 2 above correspond to red 1 and red 2 below.  So chances are that we are somewhere into the 3rd wave down and this is where we should expect real movement over unit time.  The snapshot below is also S+P500 30 minute.




Zooming out a bit for context, this is my top level count.  Note that I am still using the prior counts from months ago that were developed Nov 2014 through Feb 2015.  I just think it took a long time for wave blue 5 to get through the topping process but with the recent lower low it is becoming clear that the trend has changed downward.

So, let's assume Avi is right.  Let's assume that this recent peak was not Prechter's monster B of 5 (talking grand super cycle and super cycle degrees here).  Let's assume that this was just the peak of a 3rd wave up of an ongoing bull market.  In that case, the normal retracement should be the to level of the prior 4th which is down near 1800.  If this gets down there in a jagged, 3 wave corrective fashion then I will cover my shorts, close out my puts and start to focus heavily on long plays, especially commodities which are beaten to oblivion right now.  But if we get down that way in 5 waves, folks, then the nod has to go to Prechter's long standing deflationary crash model until the charts tell us something different.

If you are not already into UVXY then you should consider buying the dip IMO.  There is no real panic yet but we are reaching the phase where my 500+ point DJIA down day could take place and that would certainly set the herd panicking.  UVXY is shorted and hated into the ground.  Fear has been disrespected to an historic degree because of course the fed has it all under control.  This is likely in the process of changing.  But even if Avi turns out to be correct, the price target for this UVXY bounce should be $50.
The snapshot below is S+P 500, Daily.



Let's say the Avi model was playing out since this is the threat model for shorts.  If this were the case then we should expect a 3 wave move up for UVXY as shown and then a lower low back down as shown.  Hmm, there is a falling wedge in place so I will be keeping close tabs on this.  But for now I think you buy the dip in UVXY and then let's see what it does as it approaches cyan 4 in the picture below.

Drive for show, putt for dough.

The snapshot below is UVXY, 240 minute.