[JNUG] update [GLD] [JDST]

In the backlink I modeled that JNUG was at an important inflection point with this given as my primary model:



It seems this is likely resolving to the downside.  Having said that, we have not seen 5 waves down yet so nothing is cast in concrete at this point.



There is also the not so little matter of JDST having stalled at the parallel rail:


Because of this, I cashed in my JDST for a tidy 1 day profit of 21.3% and have flipped back into JNUG at the close. 


Even though JNUG got killed today, GLD actually pierced resistance with a sword and then pulled back below a little bit (see below).  It is not typical for a corrective wave to pierce major resistance like that!  I must therefore currently label this as 5 up.  In fact this might possibly even be 1-2-1-2-1-2 or perhaps 1-2-1-2-3-4.  The reason I question this is that the little "unicorn tail" could in fact be the makings of a GOE which would mean blue 5 is really red 3 and then the unicorn tail is red 4.

It is still possible that we see another wave down in JNUG to $7 as shown above and if that occurs it could still be 3 or C.  In any case I will keep a pretty tight stops on my new JNUG position.   I'd love to see it hit $4 or even $2 and then have Yellen come out and say interest rate hikes are pushed out until next year.  That, I think, would mark a serious bottom in commodities.

I must say, I haven't made bank like this is a good while.  I'm not euphoric or giddy but this has been a very nice bunch of trades of late and my hat is off to RN Elliott for his work in pioneering Elliott waves so many decades ago.

The market, I think, will continue to have taper tantrums until the fed makes it clear that they will not raise rates willingly.  At that point I think commodities break loose to the upside.  Additionally, I think that TNX begins to find upside leaving Yellen caught between rock and hard place.