[JCP] update

In the backlink I was not bullish on the shares.  The date was Sept 11 2014 and the title of the post was "[JCP] update: time to bail on this stock."



This is a zoom in of the above chart.  I modeled that this would likely either begin to collapse right away in a triple top (head and shoulders breakdown) OR it would turn into a 4th of C HT with upside to the low 12s before breaking back down into the falling wedge.



The exact top turned out to be $11.30, and then the trap door opened as you can see below.  Look at the power of EW!  My EW models clearly called the top to within 16 cents and then the shares were cut nearly in half in no time. I'm not trying to brag here because I'm far from perfect at this but please tell me in the comments if you have ever seen anyone except an Elliotician do this kind of thing over and over again as I have shown is possible in these pages.  The Elliott wave principle is a real thing.  It exists.  I don't claim to know why or how but by now I hope the evidence is sufficient for you to see it is in fact a real phenomenon.



All of which brings us to the current chart below which I think shows JCP forming a likely 4th wave HT (assuming the lower rails holds on wave D) which will then collapse and eliminate 60-80% of remaining shareholder value from the point of E of 4.  If Prechter's overarching model is correct, this will likely be the end of JCP.  At least it will be delisted, perhaps taken private, etc.  If Prechter is correct then this will not survive the final wave down that awaits it.

If Avi is right, however, then then that low will be a serious time to buy JCP because the S+P will likely have finished its pullback to 1800 and then it will head north to 2500.  Just think what such optimism would do to these shares at 50 cents. 

Trust me, I will be watching for signs as to whose model is playing out.  If we arrive at S+P in 3 waves down from the top then the nod goes to Avi until the charts say otherwise.  If they go down 5 waves and pass 1800 say to perhaps 1600-1650 then look for a big rally but after that, folks, it's likely game over EWI style.

I hate to say it folks but right now I think the odds favor EWI at least 60:40 over Avi.  See my next DJIA "big picture" post for the reasons.  Please consider buying some extra food, means to have clean water and of course means of self defense just in case it gets ugly and supply chains are cut by shortages, violence, sabotage and of course labor strikes.  Buy canned goods that you will eat in any case.  Its thus free insurance and that is the very best kind.