But after last week's action I am adjusting the count per below. I just think that the 3 wave bounce into the end of last week was likely a retracement of a full motive wave 1 down (black 1 down bounced into black 2 up). I mean, the only place that it would be a perfect 38.2 fib retracement is from the very peak. Also, it filled an important gap.
Well, if this is correct, and I give it 80+% odds of being correct at this point, you are essentially watching the BKX just moments before it begins to freefall down to the range of $53-$60. That could include massive gaps down in the DJIA of 500 pts and closing 1500 pts lower. You know, as in real fear.
If this model turns out to not be correct then the alternate count is that Friday was wave 4 and now we get 1 more wave down to complete 5 of 1.
Time will tell but if this really is the debt Ponzi that I think it is then banks are it's energy source. When banksters become fearful of default they are going to demand more interest from margin leveraged gamblers. That is going to change the whole risk/reward for people who use spreadsheets and computers all day long. If the odds are bad the gamblers will not play in the casino, period. They will sell out and walk away until the people come and hunt them down.
Trust me, the banking witch hunts are coming. Congressional "investigations" will be done. Witches will be found. Burnings will be conducted. The herd will demand it for having lost everything in the markets simply for doing what it had been told was the responsible thing: saving for retirement in tax deferred, government controlled 401ks and IRAs.
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