In the backlink I modeled the early Aug low as likely the bottom of wave 5 down. At the very least, according to that model, we should see an a-b-c back up to the level of the prior 4th which is $50. At the same time, that $50 point was actually red 4 of bigger red 4 shown by the chart from that post which is reproduced below:
We do not have confirmation yet that this model is correct, but the UVXY chart is beginning to show signs of life which appear be coinciding with the DJIA testing its lower support rail. Because of this I doubled down on UVXY into the close and got filled at $26.60. My count is below. IF this count is right, and I would call it a 90% odds probability of it being correct, the stock markets will gap down at the open tomorrow and then pick up speed to the downside into the end of the week. There has never been a better time to own UVXY IMO, at least until the wave count tells me I am wrong. My stops are already set for $26.30 in line with EW trading principles. Again, this is not a "recommendation" for UVXY, it is a commentary about UVXY's chart. Recommendations are based on traditional investing measurements of fundamentals (as if anyone really has any clue what those might be). Thus, recommendations are at least to some degree emotional in nature. Wave counts are decidedly not emotional. They are open to interpretation to be sure but if you counted the waves correctly then the interpretation, at least over the near term, is mechanical. Drive for show, putt for dough.
I think things are about to get exciting for shorts.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
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