Today's chart shows that I was premature in calling 3 of 5 complete. However with the gap in place it certainly does look to be complete. So now we look to be working on 4 of 5 (using the coloring scheme from the chart below which, unfortunately, is reversed from that above). So it is starting to look like this 1st motive wave down of the China crash will complete into the end of August and then I expect a very strong bounce into September whose target should be in the $41-$43 range - a very worthwhile trade of 35% or more. Of course if China bounces at this point then commodities probably will too.
Other options exist. For example, the expected bottom at $30 might just be the bottom of 3 of 3. That is not my primary model but I will be keeping an eye open to it's potential. It would, of course, completely change the bounce potential that is modeled below in red on the 120 minute chart.
Finally, the likelihood of a deep vee 2nd as mentioned using this model from the backlink...
...pretty much got destroyed with a gap right over the support line. This is not good no matter how you slice it from a technical perspective. It will take some energy to re-take that trend line at this point so if that happens it will probably be in C of 2 of the coming bounce.
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