Thursday, August 20, 2015

[GDXJ] update - breakout

In the backlink I was  worried that a declining double top would result in the resumption of the GDXJ downtrend.  This was in deference to Avi's view that GLD was still in a downtrend.  As you know, there has been a wave count difference between Avi and EWI that I indicated would express itself soon and right now it is falling in favor of EWI.  In the backlink I mentioned that if this did not break down and instead broke out that I would be a buyer on the first pullback.




Today instead of terminating with 3 waves up and then heading back down we got a clear breakout of the top rail.  This now looks like 5 waves up off the low and that suggests that we use patience and let it a-b-c back to the level of the prior 4th.  It is typical for wave 1 up to break resistance and then fall back below to wave 2 so that another run can be made at the barrier in wave 3. 

Nobody knows the future but the odds don't support chasing peaks.  Instead, buy the 3 wave dip.  If the big EWI reversal has indeed begun, we are in the early stages of it.  There is plenty of upside for those who show discipline.



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