In the backlink I was worried that a declining double top would result in the resumption of the GDXJ downtrend. This was in deference to Avi's view that GLD was still in a downtrend. As you know, there has been a wave count difference between Avi and EWI that I indicated would express itself soon and right now it is falling in favor of EWI. In the backlink I mentioned that if this did not break down and instead broke out that I would be a buyer on the first pullback.
Today instead of terminating with 3 waves up and then heading back down we got a clear breakout of the top rail. This now looks like 5 waves up off the low and that suggests that we use patience and let it a-b-c back to the level of the prior 4th. It is typical for wave 1 up to break resistance and then fall back below to wave 2 so that another run can be made at the barrier in wave 3.
Nobody knows the future but the odds don't support chasing peaks. Instead, buy the 3 wave dip. If the big EWI reversal has indeed begun, we are in the early stages of it. There is plenty of upside for those who show discipline.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
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