[USLV] update

Backlink.  USLV did not cooperate with the backlink's model today and it makes me wonder if blue 4 will be a triangle.  All we can really say at this point is that it was almost an exact gap fill and that is generally bearish.  Usually, if the wave is going higher it will go past the gap and leave no doubt.  On the other hand this is an island reversal, supposed to be bullish.  It will not surprise me to find this move back down to the 12.50-13 range in order to put in a double bottom of some kind.



Not that there has to be a direct day to day link between the metals, and the miners but below is the GLD chart for today.  Yes it is 5 non overlapping waves up but they do form a rising wedge (WC4) so far and again they do just come up to fill the gap.  I would not be surprised if this went on to throw over the top rail, fill the upper gap as well, and test the red horizontal from below without breaking it.

So Avi's "recent low was 3 of 5" model is still in the running.  HOWEVER, if this breaks above the horizontal red line it will destroy Avi's model and validate EWI's because in Avi's world this would have meant that wave 1 went back up into the rage of wave 1 and that is not allowed.

This could also throw over and then fall back down and retrace the entire rising wedge without going to a new low.  That would be inverted owl ears, inclining double bottom, whatever you want to call it.

In any case use discipline.  Do not chase peaks.  Buy dips if you are bullish.  Cost average in if you are not sure.  And always use stops.  If you are not wrong you will not be stopped out.  If you are wrong you will be glad that you got stopped out.  It really is as simple as that.  Use stops!  Eat your 3% loss if that's what it takes to keep you from bleeding 20% or more.  Keep emotions out of it.  Be mechanical and disciplined or Wall st will eat you alive in this game.