The first indication that this is not the new bull market yet would be a fall below the point of the blue arrow. The confirmation of this would be a fall below the red arrow. My gains will be put into my pocket long before either of these occur should that be what the market is going to do.
As for the long side, this needs to break out to a new high to even be in the consideration as a new bull because only then is it even remotely possible to count 5 up and that is what we need: a confirmed motive wave. We then need 3 wave back down to the level of the prior 4th and then a reversal to a new high in order to confirm a new uptrend is in place.
Again, high level models and predictions and calling of bottoms are all nice and good but they fall into the category of bragging rights or entertainment. It's the short game that puts money in the pocket and does not allow it to come back out.
Drive for show, putt for dough.
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