[IBM] update

In the backlink I provided the chart below which modeled a near term low in the $135 range.  We are just a few bucks from that level at this point.  It will likely either throw under and then break back up to form a leading diagonal or it will just fall right through it like it wasn't there. 

Other possibilities exist.  This could be 1-2-1-2-3 and in that case it could fall through the lower rail and then only be able to muster enough strength to back test that rail from below.  I did not show that model at this point but if it plays out it would be very bearish.

New readers will want to factor in my initial topping call on these shares.

Right now big blue has going for it the fact that blue 4 overlapped into the area of black 1.  Because of this, the wave below is likely a leading diagonal. This implies better than average odds of the red bounce once that bottom rail is kissed or better still, thrown under.  It is because of the overlap that I changed the color of blue 3 and 4.

For traders the real take away is that this is getting near a technical support point where spec buys make sense.  You should never, ever buy stocks or anything else without having at least some kind of ideas as to where it sits in the wave count.