Fast forward to today and we see that LUV has just fallen a tiny bit short of the 61.8% fib while filling the gap at left. Additionally, it did so in a 3 wave movement whose A and C waves were separated by a galaxy on end B wave.
So while nobody knows the future with 100% certainty, the odds are stacking up heavily in favor of my EW model. LUV is about to be hated. This is the perfect time to buy some Jan 15 2016 puts. This time I am choosing near the money and paying up. I just got my toe wet with 5 contracts filled at $2.14:
Looks like I am the only player at this roulette wheel today:
I suspect I will end up wishing I had bought a lot more but UVXY is easier to play the EW turns than options are. Over the years I have begun to strongly believe that options, regardless of calls or puts, are really only a good bet when you expect a 3rd wave down will transpire, and a great bet only when you expect a 3rd of 3rd to play out. Other than that they are just too risky. I might still do more long term leaps on things like GE which I strongly believe will be among the next set of big name leveraged pigs to BK but in general it has been more successful for me to trade UVXY because of the ability to stop out quickly if I know my model has gone bust.
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