Monday, December 15, 2014

A potentially positive note on GLD.

In the weekend GLD update I worried that another move up today could form an a-b-c to the level of the prior 4th.  Today's sell off was actually a bit bullish in that it killed that model and suggests that something more complex is unfolding.  As long as we keep getting higher lows and higher highs then this is climbing the wall of worry (a bullish statement).  And so far, we are getting higher lows and higher highs on GLD.  I could put up with another day of selling to the 61.8% fib but today it stopped at the 50% fib and that is a reasonable 2nd wave vee style pullback to kick off a new trend.  If this model is correct then tomorrow should begin a 3rd wave up in GLD.

Again, there are only models that provide odds, never certainties.  You want certainties?  Stop gambling and reclaim your money from the market.  That is the only certain thing and only if you do it pretty darned soon.  At some point I expect that it will be a crap shoot if trades even continue to clear.  The leverage of the system is extreme.


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