Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME)

This is very clearly near the end of the C wave of a 3 wave retracement. The orange lines show the W3 formation in red 5 of blue C.  We know where the end of red 3 was (the lower red tick on the left side of the wave) which means that the lowest right tick was wave 4 and then everything past that was either 5 or 1 of 5.  But eventually this will break down and as you can see this is not motive wave.  This is clearly a 3 wave retracement.  When the bottom drops out of this it will be fast and furious.  I don't see how the markets can do well if CME is plunging to lower lows than were seen in late 2008. 

























Here is the big picture shown in log scale in order to figure out where it will likely land (C should be about the same or a little longer than A).  From this view the CME chart is clearly sporting a WC.  We will know that the collapse has begun when the top rail breaks down.



The vertical red bar is the size of blue 1.  That is about the size of the move off of blue 4.  This chart looks like its a lot more in line with the EWI worldview then with Avi.  I don't know how the S+P 500 rallies to 2300-2500 if CME has begun to plunge in the same time frame.  Nothing is confirmed until the fall below the top rail but that is currently at about $89, not far from the current price of $92.72.  All you have to do on this one is to wait for it to fall through the top rail, short it, and then put stops just above the rail.  I have the feeling that once this one begins to go it will go quickly.














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