Thursday, December 18, 2014

IBB W3C test

The broader markets are, so far, treating the recent sell off in the DJIA and $COMPX as buy the dippertunities.   This completely apparent in the behavior of IBB, the bloated biotech ETF.  This is a classic "story stock".  In other words, those selling the shares have a believable story even if it is bullshit.  The story is that biotech shares will survive any market turmoil because boomers need increasing medical care.  The only problem is that medical advances come very, very slow and boomers are not rich.  They cannot pay sky high prices.  And now that Obamacare is in control, the insurance programs are cutting costs left and right so they won't want to pay for it either.

W3C says that a large 3rd just finished and the recent move down was 4 and now up into 5 that should be about the same size as 1.  Then biotech meets open elevator shaft.  The headlines today simply do not support this kind of move but if my EW model of the charts is correct that is what will happen.  If W3C is going to be any kind of useful indicator, it must hold in situations like this.  I'm anxious to see how this turns out!



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