Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Watch GE.

Here is the back link suggesting that one final push to the 61.8% fib could be in the cards as a deep vee 2nd wave. Today this happened and that might indeed be the peak only to reverse into the red wave as shown.  But the C wave still does not count very well so I really would prefer to see it go and fill the gap shown up to the 76.4% fib.  Testing the prior peak (which means filling the gap as well) without breaking out would give a lot of confidence that a peak is in.  Note that while the DJIA made a higher high, GE did not.  For now this still has to be viewed as bearish non-confirmation. 

I will note for the record that the Dow Transports have also not made a higher high.  If DJT and DJIA both make a lower low than their mid December lows without DJT first making a higher high then we have a confirmed Dow Theory sell signal.  It doesn't matter whether anyone thinks this is relevant to the economy.  These markets are trading on technicas, not fundamentals!  The purpose of markets is price discovery and that is exactly what we cannot have when the federal reserve has locked up more than  $4 trillion of dodgy "assets" on its balance sheet simply because nobody else would pay anything near the hoped value for them. The fed became the buyer of only resort.

In any case, the market is not going to ignore a long standing indicator like the Dow theory IMO.  The markets are stretched at these levels and so the market could panic for the door at any time.



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