interest rates need to turn up sharply for current model to remain valid.

Current model was discussed here.  Here is the near term model chart from that post.  Note that it expected a tick up and then a couple ticks down before turning up with gusto.  Importantly, red 2 should not fall into the region of blue 1.  This is not a rule violation to do so because we are talking about a 2nd wave of smaller degree, not the 4th of current wave.  Still, the 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-3-4-5 model is supposed to see significant strength during 3 of 3, not overlapping retracements.



As you can see from below, you can now see 5 tiny waves down and then a sudden tick up and then the start of move waves down, but angling down slowly, at least so far.  A normal thing here would be a move down to just above blue 1 before moving up with gusto.  The chart could legally but should not move back down into the range of blue 1.

Since this whole thing can also count as an a-b-cup tp $23, I also annotated the ohart with what a HT might look like should that top rail not break out within about 1-2 days tops.  Falling interest rates would support Avi's bid for S+P 500 to the 2300-2500 range to finish off wave 5 of 3 up.  But if rates break out per the red line I think it forces asset managers (that's what we call institutional level, massively leveraged gambling these days...) to deleverage.

So we have some nice triggers and guidelines in place on this which can help us to interpret other charts.