M+M: what could go wrong short term.

I am not happy with the inability of the miners to break out of this down sloping trend.  The recent move has formed a DDT in GDXJ which must break out next week or it will likely break down into early Jan as shown by the red model lines.

If this breaks the top rail then fine, let's roll.  But if it instead hits a lower low than 23.70 then it is either forming an a-b-c down to 23.10 before the C wave up OR it is going to head back down to lower lows with a 5th wave falling wedge throw under per the red model.  $20 would be the psych support there.  Obviously, JNUG will get pummeled if this happens. 

your defense is to use intelligent, non-emotional EW based stops and then rejoice at the collapse if it occurs because the next move up would be to the level of the prior 4th wave, if not a complete retrace of the falling wedge.  That will be big JNUG percentage gains for anyone who sees this coming in advance and positions themselves properly. 

This is not currently my primary model but it would become so if we get a near term lower low as stated above.  A break out above the down sloping line negates this model.