JNUG update

My previous post on JNUG modeled that wave 1 up had unfolded already and that it was now forming a wave 2 pullback.  I expected that it could pull back as far as the 61.8% fib because 2nd waves of new trends tend to be of the deep vee kind. 

In other words, the herd is not convinced of the direction change yet.  Another related behavior is the failed 5th 1st wave which we also saw in this wave sequence so far.  The herd wasn't ready to overtly commit but still it tacitly did so because of the 3 wave pullback into red 4 and then 5 small waves up into black 1.

You can see how I'm counting it below.  Black 1 and black 2 are waves 1 and 2 of the new upward move.  I think it is important to my model as it stands to note that 5 of C of 2 was also a failed 5th.  So it seems the herd did not want to commit to the upside but then when it came to the downside it did not want to commit on the low end either.  I think this is typical uncertainty associated with a major change in direction.  After all, how you can blame the herd for being nervous given that JNUG was $6 just a few days ago and  $36 back in July?

Of course, that is classical herd think and it is totally wrong headed.  The time to be confident about buying is NOT when something is at a high price!  The time to buy with confidence is when the price is as low as you have ever seen it and you at least have some plausible wave count to justify your decision.

In any case, I'm holding JNUG overnight after having plowed some of my UVXY profits into it @ $2.86 very near the close.