Avi's HUI and GLD targets revisited.

As usual, I like to look at the charts from as many angles as time allows in order to pick the highest odds bets.  Also, I like to take information from multiple sources to see if I can piece together a picture.  I still have not forgotten that we did not hit Avi's ~$105 target for the bottom of GLD and $119 for HUI.  Here is the post that I did on his article.  Compare the HUI chart I created there based on his article to actual below.

We did head down at the modeled time but the wave was not a clear 5 waves down.  It was more like an a-b-c move which is why I am now suspecting that this could be a 4th wave triangle forming.  A break above the upper rail during the supposed pink C wave would negate this model as would a significant deviation from the pink D position.  Note, however, that W3 is part of the 3rd wave down and NOT part of the 4th wave even though the D wave of the triangle does tend to stop at or before the line which is drawn from W3 through C.  The take away from this is that the lower orange rail does not have two valid points on it yet since one of them (W3) is not part of the 4th wave at all.

So again, nothing is confirmed here except that which we already expected which is that the market would not make it easy to read the trend change because it would just make too many millionaires.  When everyone is good and disgusted by catching the falling knife and then selling out a the bottom only for the volatility to take the chart back up again, that is when the bottom will be real.

I think that the small pullback that is modeled as B of C below would correspond to JNUG down to $2.20.  The following HUI wave up would correspond to a subsequent move by JNUG to $3.30 or $3.40.  A couple of times up and down with this kind of volatility would be enough to screw most traders up pretty nicely, especially if it ended with a big final 5th wave collapse down to HUI $119.

Folks, print this chart out and paste it next to your trading computer.  I cannot say that this will happen for sure, nobody knows the future for sure.  But I can tell you that it would make a compelling wave count and a nice ending to what Avi believes would be the bottom of a massive wave 2 pullback in M+M leading to historic new highs for GLD and the miners.  In other words, he thinks inflation begins in 2015 and then never pulls back into a complete deflationary crash like Prechter does.  Well let me tell you, everything is not deflationary right now!  I own a large 38' power boat which is stored on blocks at a boat yard on the TX gulf.  As of 1 Jan, storage rates jump from $171/mo to $300/mo.  Rates have not changed at all in an entire decade, and now this.  Make a person go "hmmmmm".

In any case, BOLO for this pattern because if it happens it will be the highest confidence buy signal since triangles are ALWAYS penultimate.  If we see that blue 4 pop above the top rail and then back into the channel I will mos def flip over and love JDST for the ride down.


The GLD chart seems a bit out of synch with the miners at this point, thus adding to the confusion. We should not be surprised by this. But in both cases we are seeing crappy choppy 3 wave moves dominate the trade and so we just have to roll with it and protect our capital until the charts signal that a real bottom is in place.  Despite EWI having called the bottom on GLD already, I'm not convinced.