Tuesday, December 23, 2014

JNK update

JNK literally seems to be rolling over and I expect acceleration to the downside as shown in blue.  So far the markets are calm and I haven't seen any real wild eyed fear yet.  It's coming though. If I didn't know better I would say we are being set up for a sudden, out of the blue down 5-7% (or more) day in the markets.  A real shocker that takes most market participants by surprise.  This is what I expect out of a C wave which is what we are supposed to be into once the DJIA stops going up everyday.  The markets seem safe and unstoppable.  Unfortunately, this is a false security.  The markets are a house of cards, at least according to my best models.  It remains to be seen weather Avi or EWI is right but given the extreme leverage and extreme sentiment I would be very careful about building long positions (AKA avoid!) that cannot easily be stopped out of (i.e. call options).


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