Thursday, December 18, 2014

Is the 420+ DJIA move up really bullish?

The main stream media is all Dowphoric over today's big move up.  For example, this article quotes Adam Sarhan (a relative nobody with no Wiki page in his name) as saying, "What happened this week was a game-changer. That easy money trade came to the forefront, and it's so powerful it wipes out all of these concerns that exist".

Gee Adam, really?  A "game changer" that "wipes out all concerns"?

Folks, these are famous last words by people who are caught up in the moment.  In other words, total herding behavior.  In other words, a contrarian indicator.  He's basically saying that he thinks the federal reserve controls the markets and that the fed is not going to tighten any time soon according to their latest non-binding, uninformative meeting minutes.  He's saying that we now have the all clear to party like it's 1999 because "all concerns" have been wiped out.  Delusional does not quite describe these statements.  Herding behavior does.

The truth is already expressing itself in the chart of the 10 year interest rate shown below.  Despite the Fed's reassurances and the associated Dowphoria, the interest rates gapped up and officially began what is likely wave 3 up.  So we are most likely going to see rising rates despite the fed's supposed omnipotent control.  Well, when that happens, Yellen is going to talk about raising rates because if she doesn't then it will become clear that the federal reserve is not really in control of them as they want everyone to believe.  The fed funds rate always trails the actual interest rates seen in the economy.  The whole thing is a confidence game, literally.  By the way, WC will be short hand for "wedge based C wave" from now on while W3 will be shorthand for "wedge based 3rd wave" going forward.

In any case, here is the chart of the DJIA which sports a very deep vee 2nd wave retracement.  We will know very quickly if this model is right.  It should be moving down strongly on or before Monday.


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