Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Junior miners look golden.

I model that the juniors have put in a major, major bottom.  None are really trading very much on their individual merits.  They are mainly trading as a herd.  I think the DRD chart is especially clear to read and so I'm using it as a proxy for all juniors (which really means for everything golden - if the juniors are doing well, every in the sector will be doing well).

Since you can't read the date labels, the start of these recent 5 waves down was Feb 2013.  In this model we have an extended 3rd wave shown by the red numbers.  I originally thought that b of blue 4 was a short stroke 5th but that wave turned out to be a flat correction into blue 4.  From there we got 5 wave down into blue 5.























Here is just wave blue 5 of the above chart:  Note from the height of the blue verticals that 5 was the same size as 1.

















Below is just wave pink 5 from the chart above.  Again, the wave count seems pretty clear here.  We have parallelism, alternation and an extended 5th wave down which includes a wedge as the 3rd of 5.


These low prices are a once in a lifetime gift yet it is always difficult to see when you are living it in real time.  We all have the built in problem that we fear that existing trends will continue forever, trees will grow to reach the sky, etc.  This is why the wave count is such a valuable tool.  It allows you to see past your emotional state and to focus on a model which has clear triggers.  I am not 1000% sure that the bottom is in because the count can always morph but I AM 1000% sure that this is a massively asymmetric bet whose potential downside is limited by stops at $1.72.  That's about a 10% risk potential with a reward potential of hundreds of percent.  In fact, those stops could even be tightened up to $1.84 which takes the risk down to 5%.
 
All I know is that the juniors are not all going away and they are priced for just about exactly that right now.  This is when the real money is made - not being afraid to buy a bottom when everyone else has just sold it off.

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