Saturday, December 10, 2016

The chart of lead metal provides my view of the Trump Pump [LEAD]

Donald Trump got elected for being more conservative than Hillary but most of the people who voted for him as being a conservative have grown up all of their lives having no clue what real conservatism is because their entire understanding of things is based on nothing more than their own life's experience.  This of course is not enough data to see the truth which is why I like to tell people that history is to wisdom as energy and tools are to production: they are both multipliers.  I just searched for the phrase "history is a wisdom multiplier" and since there are no Google hits for this exact phrase, I can now take credit as the person who coined it:

Like so many other sayings of value, the meaning is intuitively obvious once the phrase is heard (or "herd" if you will...).  That's what makes memorable sayings so memorable - they are succinct expressions of the obvious.  With good sayings, you don't need to read a book or to even read between the lines because by their very nature they are respectful of the time and energy of the reader.

In any case, those who voted for Trump in the name of conservatism either had no better choice or don't know what the word "conservatism" means because high on the list of a conservative is the notion that one keeps his promises.  Taking on debt is a promise to repay and Trump is proud of his ability to break those promises without breaking the corrupt laws so Trump is no kind of a conservative.  Additionally, conservatives live by PayGo.  They work every day for their daily bread and they do not borrow from tomorrow in order to consume today.  Of course, these are ideals that few completely live up to.  I borrowed to buy a house like everyone else and while it is now paid off, I claim that had I known back in 1995 what I know today I would have lived smaller and saved for the house and avoided paying all that interest in debt.  I could have knocked 10 years off of the time it took me to achieve home ownership.  Well, fake ownership at least.  In truth the state of Texas actually owns it because if I ever stop paying them $5000 a year tribute to live here, they will send armed men to remove me from "my" house and if I resist them with the kind of force needed to stop them from entering, they will certainly kill me. Nobody likes to think of property taxes like this but it is the conservative truth.  I don't have any choice but to pay, to leave or to die.  Kinda sad really.

But again I digress (hopefully in an educational way of course).  Semi conservative (and that is me being generous) Trump now wants to expand the economy, expand jobs, build walls through which lower cost labor and goods trade and essentially turn the US into a nationalistic, protectionist state.  He wants to take on tons more debt in order to pay for all this but no worries because he also plans, well in advance and by his own spoken admission, to default on everything at some point.

So how might all of this turn out?  Well, the history is our view into the future but only when run through that probability decoder ring known as Elliott waves.  So what I see is below.  The crash into 2009 was 5 waves down in lead, a basic industrial metal used in countless ways.  Since I can't count this as a 3-3-5, I cannot call that a flat correction.  Thus I have to count it as the A wave of the correction.  If that is the case then the next thing we should see is a corrective structure being the B wave just before the big collapse again into red C which is green 2.

In layman's terms, I expect the Promise of the Trump Pump ("pump" being a referance to debt based consumption in this case) to cause the herd to have  a short term increase in hope (i.e. confidence in leadership) leading to red B followed by another huge collapse as people find out that Trump is just another liberal who thinks he can buy perpetual prosperity using debt.

Mark this post, one way or another it should be fun to refer back to later.

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