In my previous russell 2000 update I claimed victory just a little prematurely on the 4th wave triangle call because it was in fact still building the 4th. The updated model is below and if it has not already peaked into wave 5 then it is very, very likely only 1-2 days from doing so:
After a horizontal triangle puts in the 4th wave bottom we need to see 5 waves up to finish the series but EW gives no rules for how this plays out. It could be 5 small waves that barely breach the top rail or it could be that the 5 waves up we now see on the chart only represent 1 of 5. The key will be in the retracement level. At the very least we should see a pullback to the 1135 range which would be the level of the prior 4th as well as the 50 fib. But if it can't hold that level and subsequently falls below 1040 then we begin to enter free fall territory where UVXY and puts will do very, very well.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
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