$COMPX update: weakness but no confirmed break down as of yet.

Here is the backlink.  Below is the model from that link.  In that post I wrote, "A quick move above the top rail followed by a plunge back into the channel is the $COMPX breakdown signal.  Nothing is confirmed until we get the breakdown below the top rail and then second confirmation is breakdown below the bottom rail.... I like UVXY and TVIX here."




As it turned out, that wedge did throw over very quickly as expected but it went all the way up and filled the only gap that existed in wave 1 down.  So now the chart does not have any technical need to go back up there.  It also resulted in a deep vee second which is very typical.

I don't know if the move down on the 31 was 3 of 5 or 1 of 3.  Either way I expect some kind of retracement on Monday and then more selling to confirm 5 waves down. I think it is very very possible that the 2009 rally ended on Dec 26th.  If you did not get in on UVXY then don't think the train has left the station, etc.  It's just about ready to begin moving quickly though.  Buy the dip in UVXY!