Friday, January 5, 2018

Marathon oil update [MRO]

I posted about Marathon Oil (MRO) for the first time ever back in Feb 2016.  At the time I mocked Cramer because he was herding with the public sentiment given that the bottom had fallen out of the shares.  I wrote, "whereas Cramer is telling people to avoid it, I have to disagree based on nothing whatsoever except the wave count.  I think that the wave is very near a significant bottom and that the coming bounce should take it into the $10-$11 range.  There is near term downside to $6 as shown by the red circle but then we should get a significant bounce."

Current actual is below.  It began to bounce at almost exactly $6 leaving Elliott wave practitioners open to a potential gain of 300% right when Cramer was telling the world to avoid it.  Maybe its just another coincidence?

Wave models are not always correct but if they model is wrong you will know pretty quickly and it will trigger you to cut your losses short.  That's the beauty of the Elliott wave principle: it gives you a model to trade by which completely ignores and often flies in the face of the the prevailing herding sentiment.  It helps you avoid the profit-crushing buy high sell low scenario which Cramer is so adept at falling into.  No other system was predicting a bottom for the likes of MRO at the time.

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