I expected a pretty good sell off today but @ -317 on the DOW we got past that magic number of 300 at which people begin to wonder if this is just a normal buy the dip pullback or if it is something more. The $COMPX also lost a big 93 point chunk. After 5+ years of rally, expect the bulls to counterattack. Expect the fed to goose the markets behind closed doors to see if a little leadership can go a long way in terms of inciting others to buy. In addition, it is possible to count this recent move as an expanding triangle 4th wave which could mean 1 more thrust upwards for the $COMPX. This would lead to a lower low for TVIX which is why I took profits today and moved to JNUG. Again, I could be totally wrong about this but we should know very soon. If we get another big sell off tomorrow then game over. But if we get some cheery sounding news and the markets rally then we might have to wait another 1-2 weeks before the real peak is in.
Tomorrow should give us some critically important technical insight. At some point rather soon I will stop being so skittish and I will become more emboldened on the short side because once the wind is blowing south, the ship is going to sail south. All the signs are just piling up including my predicted "300-500 point down day". Now that we got our 300 point down day, the next big sign will be that 500+ point down day. Then the hooves will begin heading south and nothing anyone says will stop them. No clever fed speak, no incentives to buy, no price controls, no cooling off period of closing the markets, etc. They will call it a panic. I will call it a reversion to the mean and a return to sanity.
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