TVIX: what could go wrong short term

Since now is a bad time to become complacent, I offer the potential models below for your consideration.  In short, while it is not my current primary model, the model below recognizes the fact that the early July bottom could have just been a 3rd wave and now all this choppy sideways crap is the 4th wave playing out.  The a-b-c nature of the past couple weeks looks like a bowtie which is corrective, not motive.  So we could get another spurt up as shown and then a breakdown into the real 5th wave down (which could be @ $2.50 or even $2.00) before reversing hard and then showing real motive wave forms.  

Bottom line: a break below the lower rail of the orange triangle=immediate sell and ask questions later.  Alternatively, a break out which leaves us at the middle bump of the ending diagonal after an a-b-c type rally can rapidly reverse as shown in blue or red below.  If we get that then I cannot think of any other scenarios, any other wave interpretations which would be bad news for TVIX.  Great reduction of risk makes any bet a better bet. 

Stay alert right now.  Even though the signs are building rapidly that the markets are starting to roll over (including a rapidly declining internal advance-decline indicator as reported in today's EWI short term update), a mortally wounded bull can still be very dangerous to the matador that gets too cocky.  Note: the blue and red peaks were not intended to show top possible values of a false breakout.  It could go all the way up to $4.40 which is about the level of the prior 4th.  EW does not work by strict moves to price levels.  If it did, everyone would be rich.  It works by wave shape which leaves enough variables so as to be semi chaotic offering nothing more than the chance to improved your odds at the casino.  Everything is odds, there are no certainties because of limited data resolution and limited human brain processing power.