Tuesday, July 8, 2014

$COMPX update: ending diagonal breakdown.

Here is my prior post on the $COMPX.  In that model I expected a small bounce up off of the top rail followed by a plummet that takes out both rails.  Today, without even the small courtesy of a 23.8% fib retracement from wave one into wave 2, wave 3 fell away at the speed of gravity as if it were WTC 7 on 9-11.  Look at how wave 3 of 1 took out both the top and bottom rail as if they were nothing.  That is not bullish folks.
 
I've marked wave 4 in the usual way using red lines.  If this model is correct then tomorrow we should get another wave down and perhaps late tomorrow or early Thursday we see an a-b-c rally to the prior 4th.  What then, freak out Friday so that the herd can stew in their losses over the weekend?   Well, no use counting chickens before they hatch and all that rot.

Of course I don't know the exact timing any better than anyone else but I do expect the Elliott wave patterns to be clearer going forward.  It is not written anywhere that I know of but my observation is that the waves are clearer during 3rd waves and, more generally, in the direction of the overarching trend. It's like there is a slight tail wind in the prevailing direction of travel that helps one know which way the planet is spinning.

Good luck fellow gamblers, may the odds ever be in your favor.

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