Wednesday, July 30, 2014

I was too early on counting TWTR's dead cat bounce out...

In this post I mentioned directly and linked to other posts where I had been expecting an a-b-c dead cat bounce for TWTR back to the $45 range since that is the level of the 38.2 fib.  I wrote: "I hate to throw out price targets like this but if pressed I would call it $26 for 5 of C. The subsequent short covering rally should bounce back to perhaps $45."

Well I waited for awhile and it seemed like the 23.6% fib was all that it was going to get, which I called "pathetic".  In other words, it was not expected.  After adjusting my expectations that the dead cat was already in, I failed to see the potential for today's 20% upward spike.  I was just not patient enough and not trusting enough in the Elliott wave principle.

But this is not a buy signal.  It is just short covering.  It has now recovered to the level of the prior 4th as well as the 38.2% fib.  Sure, it could go up to the 50% fib or even the 61.8% fib.  But if it does, short the Hell out of it because it is going to turn right back down into 2015 if not sooner.

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