Thursday, July 31, 2014

Dollar update

Here is my previous post on UUP, the Dollar ETF.  The general theme was that an ending diagonal had concluded, that the dollar was now entering a bull market and that stocks would begin suffering as a result.  The current chart is so similar to my model that I won't comment too much but you can basically see the breakout, the "vee" 2nd wave back-test and now the acceleration into wave 3 up.  Wave 4 will likely be sideways and then wave 5 will either be the size of wave 1 or it will be the extended wave.  A stronger dollar should mean weaker stocks.  It should also mean weaker metals.  The latter will be very important to watch because we know that the end is drawing near when gold and silver and dollars all go up at the same time.  Common wisdom is that dollars go up while gold and silver go down.  I'm not saying we are ready for that yet, I'm saying we should watch for it and be zero surprised when it happens (while walking to our economic fallout shelters).


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