Wednesday, July 23, 2014

XLNX in collapse: The junior chip makers are always among the first to get hit when the collapse comes.

Xilinx (ticker: XLNX) was down nearly 10% in the after hours trading on an earnings miss.  TheStreet.com reports on it here.  The chart of the trading in the AH was captured at exactly, yes, $44.  Not $40.01.  Not $39.99.  Cramer will tell you all the "reasons" why the shares collapsed like that but all of it is bullshit.  They collapsed because they had entered a 3rd wave down and for no other reason.  Note that 3 of 1 was also a shellacking. 


Unfortunately, XLNX is likely going to collapse a lot further before this little game of pump and dump is over.  This is my first post on it and below is my high level model.  Basically, dot bomb was wave 3, then a horizontal triangle for wave 4 which just ended right at the 50% fib.  The first bounce point happened at the 38.2 (exactly).  There is going to be a huge gap down when the 38.2 gives way under the pressure of 3 of blue 1. We are just getting started with the carnage and although you cannot see it in the main indices yet (the marginal players are hit the first and the worst), these other stocks quietly collapsing are killing market confidence.  What's a fund manager to do when he promised fund owner 8% annuity for life or fixed pension payments which imply the same kind of growth?  These smaller players is where the growth potential ever was.  You are not going to get 8% per annum from IBM because the law of big numbers is kicking in for them.

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