Thursday, July 10, 2014

TVIX: time to begin the Superman impersonation.

I have now looked at the last 4 years of TVIX wave by wave and I have two possible ending counts that lead up to yesterday.  In the first count which I have been using up until now, July 3rd was the 5th wave and then we got wave blue 1 up and then yesterday blue 2 bottomed.  In that case I expect blue 3 which you have seen in prior charts.

However, I also see another count which is just as good if not better:  Blue 1 was really red 4.  Then (with apologies re-using red for the internal count) we see red 1-2-3-4-5.  This would indicate that what just transpired was a failed 5th leading to an inclining double bottom.  That is a very common long term ending and it is the reason I find it so bullish.  You do not just easily go back and take out an inclining double bottom!  The new count does not require the use of the ending diagonal formation which had some issues with respect to the back test breaking below the top line - a real ending diagonal does not do that.

But the important thing is that both of these very heavily considered counts keep my current market peak day of July 3rd which leaves them both only one way to go tomorrow: up, up and away.  Pretty soon TVIX will be impersonating Superman (you know, with powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men...).  I think it has to begin to take flight tomorrow.  I have put in a boatload of work on tracking this thing and so I really hope that hard work pays off.

That 300-500 point single down day is coming to the DJIA soon folks.  That is when the herd will finally feel the fear and that is when they will begin bidding up the insurance policies.  These leveraged gamblers let insurance go way out of style and let the price fall to nearly nothing.   They HATED insurance at $2.65-$2.85 where I am loaded to the gills.  They will love it at $40 or $50.

Don't sell out too cheaply!  Keep in mind, the target for the DJIA - the best case conservative target - is sub $5k.  That's if you use my models.  The EWI folks have a target that is far, far lower.  Too low to mention in mixed company.  Let's start with my sub $5k target and then modify it as needed.  Of course, there is no telling  what will actually happen because all of this is about odds and not certainties.




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